Transcript
Sumber:
APBN 2014 dan khusus untuk tahun 2013 dari Paparan Menteri ESDM pada Rapat Kerja dengan
Komisi VII DPR tanggal 29 Januari 2014.
Konsumsi BBM bersubsidi naik terus: mengapa
justru solar yang dibatasi?
7.7
4.6
2.4
1.7
1.2
1.1
11.5
11.8
12.8
14.1
14.8
15.9
19.0
20.9
23.0
24.5
27.3
29.3
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Minyak Tanah Solar Premium
Juta Kiloliter
Konsumsi BBM meroket, produksi minyak melorot, impor
kian menganga, siap menerkam perekonomian
Source:
BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1
9
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3
Thousand barrel/day
Oil production:
Includes
crude oil, tight oil, oil
sands and NGLs (the
liquid content of natural
gas where this is
recovered separately).
Excludes liquid fuels from
other sources such as
biomass and derivatives
of coal and natural gas.
Oil consumption:
inland
demand plus aviation and
marine bunkers and
refinery fuel and loss.
Consumption of
biogasoline (such as
ethanol), biodiesel and
derivatives of coal and
natural gas are also
included.
Imports
741.000
barrel/day
Consumption
Production
* January-June
Sources:
BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Trade account of oil
-3.8
-8.4
-27.7
-13.7
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
U
S
$
B
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l
i
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n
s
Crude oil Oil products Total
Lebih parah lagi, minyak mentah pun
sudah defisit mulai tahun 2013
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Crude Oil
Exports
6,090 5,715 5,228 5,621 6,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 12,419 7,820 10,403 13,829 12,293 10,205 4,629.4
Imports
-2,525 -2,888 -3,217 -3,928 -5,831 -6,797 -7,853 -9,057 -10,062 -7,362 -8,531 -11,154 -10,803 -13,586 -6,912.6
(X - M)
3,565 2,827 2,011 1,694 410 1,349 316 169 2,357 458 1,872 2,675 1,490 -3,381 -2,283.2
Oil Products
Exports
1,652 1,189 1,308 1,548 1,654 1,932 2,844 2,879 3,547 2,262 3,967 4,777 4,163 4,299 1,938.6
Imports
-3,491 -2,574 -3,309 -3,583 -5,892 -10,646 -11,080 -12,787 -20,231 -11,129 -18,018 -28,134 -28,679 -28,568
-13,330.6
(X - M)
-1,840 -1,385 -2,001 -2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,908 -16,684 -8,876 -14,051 -23,357 -24,516 -24,269 -11,392
Total
Exports
7,742 6,904 6,535 7,169 7,896 10,078 11,013 12,105 15,966 10,082 14,370 18,606 16,456 14,504 6,568.0
Imports
-6,016 --5,462 -6,526 -7,510 -11,724 -17,443 -18,933 -21,844 -30,293 -18,491 -26,549 -39,288 -39,482 -42,154 -20,243.2
(X - M)
1,726 1,442 10 342 -3,828 -7,365 -7,920 -9,739 -14,327 -8,409 -12,179 -20,682 -23,026 -27,650
-13,675.2
* January-June.
Source:
BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
(Oil trade account, US$ billions)
Trade deficit: oil and gas
* January-June
Source:
BPS-Statistic Indonesia.
6.3
-1.4
-5.6
-12.6
-6.1
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Oil & oil products Gas Oil & gas
U
S
$
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Jangan lagi berharap harga minyak murah
Crude Oil Light Sweet Pit (Nymex) October 2014
Source:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-
price index = US$118
Adjusted by annual
income within G-7
countries = US$134
Adjusted by disposable
income of US = US$145
Spending on oil as a
share of global output =
US$150
•
Source: Economist
, April
17, 2008.
5:14 p.m EDT
$93.45 =
Source:
World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2013.
Selain menekan rupiah, juga menekan APBN,
lalu menyebar ke berbagai arah
Subsidi
BBM
IDR = Rp 11,900/US$
Auto growth = 5%
Oil subsidy = Rp 4,800/ltr
ICP = US$105/barrel
Total subsidy = Rp 291 Tn
(16.5% penerimaan negara
atau 14,4% pengel. negara)
Subsidi BBM, defisit APBN
Subsidi BBM telah merongrong APBN.
Dalam 11 tahun terakhir, hampir selalu (10
tahun) subsidi BBM lebih besar dari nilai
defisit APBN. Hanya tahun 2009 saja subsidi
BBM lebih kecil dari defisit APBN.
Defisit APBN ditutup dengan utang, yakni
menerbitkan Surat Utang Negara (SUN).
Berarti, secara tak langsung, subsidi BBM
dibiayai oleh utang pemerintah.
Budget deficit and primary balance
Year
Total
Revenues
(IDR trillion)
Total
Expenditures
(IDR trillion)
Deficit
(% of GDP))
Primary
balance
(IDR trillion)
2005
495
510 15 (0.5) 51
2006 638 667 29 (0.9) 50
2007
708
758 50 (1.3) 30
2008 982 986 4 (0.1) 84
2009 849 937 88 ( 1.6) 5
2010
995
1,042 47 (0.7) 42
2011
1,211
1,295 84 (1.1) 9
2012
1,336
1,482 146 (1.8)
-46
2013
1,430
1,639 209 (2.3)
-97
2014*
1,540
1,821 281 (2.8)
-145
2015** 1,762 2,020 258 (2.3)
-104
Primary balance:
central
government
revenues minus
central
government
expenditure
except for
interest
payments on the
central
government
debt.
* Prediction ** RAPBN
Source:
 Ministry of Finance.
Nilai tukar rupiah melemah sejak Septeber 2011
dan berlangsung paling lama dalam sejarah
8.000
8.500
9.000
9.500
10.000
10.500
11.000
11.500
12.000
12.500
0
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Source:
Bank Indonesia
(Rupiah per US$)
24-26 Nov
2008 = 12,400
Terkuat 2/8/11 = Rp 8.460
Getting to the root of the problem: balance of
payments (US$ million)
* First semester (January-June)
Source:
Bank Indonesia.
2010
2011 2012 2013 2014* Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT
5,144
1,685 -24,418 -29,129 -13,264 -6,009 -10,133 -8,634 -4,345 -4,151 -9,113
A. Goods, net (Trade account)
31,003 33,825 8,680 5,833 2,876 1,602 -556 85 4,703 3,350 -474
1. Exports, f.o.b.
149,966 191,109 187,346 182,089 88,132 44,945 45,244 43,824 48,076 43,937 44,195
2. Imports, f.o.b.
-118,963
-157,284 -178,667 -176,256 -85,258 -43,603 -46,071 -44,003 -43,651 -40,588 -44,670
B. Services, net
-9,791
-9,803 -10,564 -12,072 -5,153 -2,633 -3,552 -2,781 -3,106 -2,231 -2,922
C. Primary Income, net
-20,698
-26,547 -26,628 -26,850 -13,608 -6,054 -7,027 -6,808 -6,961 -6,354 -7,254
D. Secondary Income, net
4,630
4,211 4,094 3,959 2,623 1,076 1,003 862 1,019 1,085 1,538
II. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 50 33 51 21 2 1 7 5 8 1 1
III. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
26,476
13,603 24,858 21,942 22,158 -653 8,620 4,987 8,987 7,646 14,512
1. Direct investment
11,106
11,528 13,716 13,669 8,291 3,633 3,657 5,851 527 3,467 4,824
2. Portfolio investment
13,202
3,806 9,206 9,531 16,829 2,760 3,389 1,592 1,790 9,125 7,704
3. Financial derivatives
-94 69 13 -334 -86 -101 20 -235 -19 -140 54
4. Other investment
2,262
-1,801 1,922 -924 -2,875 -6,945 1,553 -2,221 6,689 -4,805 1,930
IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS
-1,327
-3,465 -275 -158 -2,533 45 -971 1,006 -238 -1,430 -1,103
V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS
-30,343
-11,857 -215 7,325 -6,363 6,615 2,477 2,645 -4,412 -2,066 -4,297
Transaksi perdagangan (ekspor-impor)
minyak dan non-migas jadi biang keladi
*
In parentheses is percent of GDP.
Source:
 Bank Indonesia
Akun lancar (current account) dan komponennya, miliar US$
Current Non-oil
Oil Gas Services Income
Current
Account* and gas transfer
2008 0.1 (0.0%) 15.1
-8.4
16.1 -13 -15.2 5.4
2009 10.6 (2.0%) 25.6
-4.0
9.4 -9.7 -15.1 4.6
2010 5.1 (0.7%) 27.8
-8.7
11.9 -9.8 -20.8 4.6
2011 1.7 (0.2%) 34.5
-17.5
16.9 -10.6 -26.7 4.2
Q1 2.9 (1.5) 8.9
-3.2
3.6 -1.8 -5.5 1.0
Q2 0.3 (0.1) 10.6
-5.8
4.4 -3.1 -6.8 1.0
Q3 0.8 (0.3) 9.3
-4.3
4.7 -2.6 -7.4 1.0
Q4
-2.3 (-1.1)
6.6
-4.2
4.2 -3.1 -7 1.2
2012
-24.4 (-2.8%)
13.9
-20.4
15.2 -10.3 -26.8 4.1
Q1
-3.2 (-1.5%)
4.7
-5.3
4.4 -2.0 -6.0 1.0
Q2
-8.1 (-3.7%)
2.0
-5.3
4.2 -2.8 -7.1 0.9
Q3
-5.3 (-2.4%)
4.0
-4.2
3.4 -2.4 -7.0 0.9
Q4
-7.8 (-3.6%)
3.2
-5.6
3.2 -3.2 -6.7 1.3
2013
-29.1 (-3.3%)
15.5
-22.5
12.8 -12.1 -27.0 4.0
Q1
-6.0 (-2.7%)
4.4
-6.4
3.5 -2.6 -6.1 1.1
Q2
-10.1 (-4.5%)
1.5
-5.1
3.0 -3.5 -7.1 1.0
Q3
-8.6 (-3.9%)
2.7
-5.7
3.0 -2.8 -6.8 0.9
Q4
-4.3 (-2.1%)
6.8
-5.4
3.2 -3.1 -7.0 1.0
2014
-13.3 (3.2%)
8.8
-12.2
6.3 -5.1 -13.6 2.6
Q1
-4.2 (-2.0%)
6.1
-6.1
3.3 -2.2 -6.4 1.1
Q2
-9.1 (-4.3%)
2.7
-6.1
3.0 -2.9 -7.2 1.5
Sources:
BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Trade account: dalam 25 bulan terakhir,
15 bulan alami defisit; nonmigas 7 bulan
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$
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Non-oil and gasOil and gasTotal
Akhirnya jebol: transaksi perdagangan
defisit sejak 2012
2011 2012
2013
2014*
2011 2012
2013
2014*
Total export
203.5 190.0 182.6
88.8
29.0 -6.6 -3.9
-2.5
Non-oil and gas
162.0 153.1 149.9
73.1
24.9 -5.5 -2.0
-2.1
Oil and gas
41.5 37.0 32.6
15.7
48.3 -10.9 -11.8
-3.9
Total import
177.4 191.7 186.6 90.0 30.7 8.0 -2.6 -1.4
Non-oil and gas
136.7 149.1 141.4
68.2
26.2 9.0 -5.2
-5.7
Oil and gas
40.7 42.6 45.3 21.8 48.4 4.6 6.4 -1.4
Surplus (Deficit)
26.1
(-1.6) (-4.1)
-1.2
Non-oil and gas
25.3 4.0 8.6
4.9
Oil and gas
0.8
(-5.6)
(-12.6) -6.1
Billion US$
Growth (yoy)
Description
* January-June
Source:
BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Oleh karena itu, harus ada upaya nyata:
Meningkatkan produksi dalam jangka pendek
cost recovery
naik.
Mempercepat eksplorasi untuk menemukan
sumur baru agar
proven reserves
naik
Jangka menengah panjang: meningkatkan
proven
reserves
setidaknya setara dengan tingkat
kenaikan konsumsi.
Dan/atau diversifikasi energi: gas untuk
transportasi publik, biofuel untuk kendaraan
pribadi dan pembangkit listrik.
Without subsidy, oil trade deficit is still high
Subsidy
(Rp/liter)
Scenario I
(Rp trillion)
Scenario II
(Rp trillion)
4,800 24.8 25.3
4,600 24.3 24.9
4,000 23.4 23.9
3,000 20.5 21.0
2,000 18.2 18.7
1,000 15.8 16.3
0 13.4 13.9
Scenario I: ICP = US$106.5/barrel; IDR = Rp 11,600/US$; Auto growth = 5%
Scenario II: ICP = US$110.0/barrel; IDR = Rp 12.000/US$; Auto growth = 7%
Kapan sebaiknya harga BBM bersubsidi naik?
Sebaiknya sekali di era pemerintahan SBY
pada
bulan September, setidaknya Rp 1.800.
Sekali lagi pada Februari 2015.
Lalu besarnya subsidi ditetapkan (
fixed
). Jika
melewati harga naik otomatis.
Source:
BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Besaran garis kemiskinan
Memerangi mitos BBM memiskinkan
Source:
BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Source:
 CEIC.
History of gasoline 88 (premium) price
Jul-1981 Jul-1984 Jul-1987 Jul-1990 Jul-1993 Jul-1996 Jul-1999 Jul-2002 Jul-2005 Jul-2008 Jul-2011 Jul-2014
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
ID: Retail Price: Fuel: Subsidized: Gasoline 88 (Premium)
IDR/Litre
Source:
CEIC
Perkembangan harga bensin, beras, dan padi
Nov. 2008
Rp
Jul. 2014
Rp
Kenaikan
(%)
Bensin 6.000 6.500 8,3
Beras 6.441 11.321 75,8
Padi kadar air < 14% 2.909 4.597 58,0
Terima asih
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